Chad: delicate campaign for December referendum under military rule
Chad, governed by a military junta, embarks on a crucial campaign for the December 17 referendum on a new constitution. This poses a significant test of legitimacy for the junta and questions the 30-year rule of the Itno dynasty.
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, the current transitional President of Chad, initially pledged to restore power to civilians and hold elections this year, but these elections have been postponed to 2024.
The upcoming referendum marks a key step towards establishing a civilian regime.
Over 8.3 million citizens are called to vote, with stakes extending beyond constitutional revision.
According to the opposition, NGOs, and political analysts, control over the process could influence the continuation of Itno’s hold on power and his family’s «dynasty», a critical issue after three decades of absolute rule.
The «Yes» camp, supported by the junta, advocates for a strongly decentralized unitary state, while opponents call for a federal model.
The proposed new constitution does not differ significantly from the previous one, which concentrated significant powers in the hands of the head of state.
This referendum also serves as a gauge to assess the popularity and legitimacy of the ruling junta, according to observers.
Radical opposition groups are calling for a boycott, labeling the process a «charade».
Protests erupted last year, violently suppressed, resulting in between 100 and 300 deaths, according to the opposition and NGOs.
Mahamat Déby had promised civilian rule and free” elections, but 18 months into his tenure, the transition period has been extended by two years.
The president, initially committed not to run, ultimately reversed his position and is now a candidate in the presidential elections.
The recently granted amnesty to all actors involved in the unrest has drawn criticism from the opposition, denouncing an attempt to shield those responsible for the «massacre».
In a context where anti-regime protests have been declared illegal, and forced exiles are prevalent, concerns persist about the legitimacy of the referendum.
The Chadian population, divided between the arid north with a predominantly Muslim population and the more fertile south, faces critical challenges for its political and social future.
Chad, recently ranked among the lowest countries according to the United Nations Human Development Index, confronts complex challenges and crucial choices in this delicate political transition period.
Yann ETERNEL
