AES: Two years after breaking away from ECOWAS, the confederation defies predictions of economic collapse
Two years ago, the withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sparked strong reactions. Many observers, both regionally and internationally, predicted inevitable economic decline for these three Sahelian countries. The sanctions imposed, the anticipated diplomatic isolation, and the supposed collapse of trade ties were expected, by some, to plunge the AES into an unprecedented crisis. Yet, experience has shown the opposite. Far from collapsing, these economies adapted and found viable alternatives.
One of the first observations has been the gradual diversification of economic partnerships. Aware of their historic dependence on other ECOWAS members, the three countries have explored new avenues of cooperation with other African actors, as well as with emerging partners in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. This openness has helped offset part of the losses linked to their withdrawal, while reducing vulnerability to external pressure.
In the commercial sector, the resilience of local markets has become evident. Despite initial disruptions, particularly along supply corridors, the AES states have strengthened intra-regional trade. Exchanges between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have intensified, boosting key sectors such as agriculture, livestock, and retail trade. Moreover, road infrastructure and border crossings have been secured to ease economic flows.
The agricultural sector, the backbone of these economies, has received special attention. Policies supporting local production and promoting food and cereal value chains have helped limit the impact of inflation and ensure a degree of food self-sufficiency. Far from the catastrophic scenarios once predicted, the AES has shown it can rely on its internal resources to feed its population and sustain its economy.
Thus, two years after leaving ECOWAS, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger prove that predictions of collapse were nothing but a mirage. Although challenges remain immense, the AES has demonstrated its ability to turn constraint into opportunity, assert its sovereignty, and chart an independent economic path, breaking away from past dependencies.
